Friday Follies...
Well, as far as any more (blogspot) "hacking" goes...so far...so good. No more "ghosts in the machine", so to speak.
Amazing how you can't even have a simple thing like a BLOG "all to yourself" these days.
I suppose SOME people are placed on this earth ONLY to annoy others, because they sure as hell aren't anything close to being productive in ANY manner, are they?
With that said (and hopefully well behind us), let's settle into the weekend with AS FEW problems as possible, shall we?
Oh...My...God...is that the SUN I saw in the skies over the city yesterday? What the hell is THAT doing there, hmm?
And, believe it or not, we STILL have streets and sidewalks UNDERNEATH all that melting white stuff...AMAZING!
(who knew?)
Now...I know all of you faithful readers have taken something in school called MATHEMATICS, and you very likely know HOW to properly apply it during most ANY day of the rolling year,
We couldn't get by without it, could we?
Mathematics, units of measurement, quantities, bill paying...doesn't matter WHAT you wind up doing today, sooner or later, that math ability you've (hopefully) honed all these years comes into play.
But for anyone perusing these "pages" and finding themselves somehow lacking in numerical dexterity, allow me to provide a marvelous example on how NOT knowing the nuts and bolts of mathematics can have others not knowing the real truth.
Statistical analysis provides us facts and figures, but how others decide on how "best" to employ those numbers and facts to THEIR advantage properly demonstrates why we all need to learn to read between the lines, scratch the surface, and see what color this old jalopy REALLY is, because in many cases, we're not being told the WHOLE truth when it comes to reporting those facts and those figures.
Case in point...a recent "debate" over at Leo Morris' blog "Opening Arguments". Nothing wrong with the post, entitled "It's A Crime" - 17 February...in fact, I found it to be spot on.
Yet, if one does the REAL math here, one might soon find that when it comes to crime reporting, the numbers can be manipulated to say almost anything.
Now, I'm not busting on Leo...he's good people, and says it like it is. My contention is with commenters who think (erroneously) that I am paranoid because of where I happen to live. They simply don't "get it". I'm not paranoid, but I AM, if nothing else...vigilant.
Whenever I hear about crime going DOWN, and I see no visible proof to back that up...I do what any normal person should do: question the veracity of the statement or claim.
Here's a story in today's paper that, at first glance, seems perfectly fine:
(( Crime Drops Near Police Post - Michael Zenni / The Journal Gazette
A new northeast-side police outpost helped curb crime by 32 percent in the immediate area after Parkview Hospital donated the building last spring, hospital and police officials said Thursday.
Fort Wayne police moved their northeast-quadrant outpost to an office building at East State Boulevard and Beacon Street last spring after a rash of armed robberies at businesses in the area.
The hospital agreed to lease the building to the police department for $10 a year in an effort to increase police presence in the neighborhood and deter crime.
Robberies, thefts and vehicle thefts all dropped in the four-block radius around the outpost in the months after it opened in April, according to statistics from the hospital and the police department.
Burglaries, however, rose from seven in 2008 to 10 in 2009, according to the statistics.
Crime rose 62 percent in the four-block radius between January and April 2009, compared with the same months in 2008.
Then, between April and the end of 2009, crime dropped 32 percent compared with the same time the year before, officials said.
The result was a decline of just less than 20 percent for 2009 in the four-block radius, officials said.
This is greater than the 8 percent decline the police department reported citywide for the year.
"It gives you a sense of security," Parkview Hospital Chief Operating Officer Sue Ehinger said of the increased police presence.
mzennie@jg.net ))
Seems okie-dokie, right?
Look CLOSELY...
Crime had gone UP 62%, and after the post opened, crime DROPPED 32%.
The article states that "as a result", crime went DOWN less than 20%, when in FACT, the opposite is true. Crime really had gone UP close to THIRTY PERCENT! (net).
Do the math: 62 minus 32 equals 30 (that's thirty). The NET RESULT was a 30% RISE in crime for the area AFTER a 32% drop.
Got the picture?
Crime didn't REALLY "go down", as was portrayed, correct?
So, whenever I hear about crime (in MY area for example) GOING down, I take that to mean that crime is OCCURRING, as opposed to abating or dropping in both numbers and severity. It's goin' down, dude...that robbery is GOIN' DOWN. It's not diminishing in any way...it's OCCURRING. Simple, huh?
I'll bet all my former math teachers are smiling from the grave over this. They have taught me well.
Next stop...JEDI SCHOOL, right?
Maybe...next life...LOL!
Obi-Bob...kinda rolls off the tongue nicely...I like the sound of that. Wonder what type of batteries that light saber takes?
But, I digress...
Seriously, though...if crime is going DOWN, why am I seeing JUST as much (if not more) as I have in the past? Are MY aging eyes more adept at seeing what others cannot (or will not)? I will admit that I DO know what to look for (warning signs of impending criminal activity), but I've been good at that for quite some time. Blame my parents...blame my mentors..hell, blame George Bush (he catches crap for stuff he doesn't do)...LOL
Now if criminal activity is NEVER reported, does that skew the statistics?
Yasureyoubecha, it does!
If people are victims of a crime, but (for some odd reason known only in "da hood") and yet FAIL to report it, that doesn't make that crime LESS of a crime. It just keeps it "off the radar" when it comes to compiling the numbers for the stats.
Also, if a particular crime becomes "reclassified" into a different category (as the DoJ has done in the past), does that not change statistical results for those categories? Of course, it does, kids...it HAS to change the figures.
And..if VIOLENT crime goes up say 10%, but all other crime goes down 20%, does that make those violent crimes any LESS violent?
Hell no!
(but crime went down 10%, Bob)
I know. It "seems" like crime goes down (overall), but try telling the victim's family when their son is shot dead that crime went DOWN, even though Johnny got killed...that crap ain't gonna float, no matter HOW you try.
But it does look good on paper...and on the 5 o'clock news, right?
Crime went down...we're all SAFE once again...HURRAY!
Well, that'll lure folks into a false sense of security real fast.
My neighborhood is crime-ridden...that's a FACT.
The number of calls in my area has NOT gone DOWN...but UP. That's also a FACT.
The amount of FWPD resources expended in my area is the largest of the department. That's a FACT.
In fact, the FACTS are damn near overwhelming, factually-speaking.
But, as long as people can be swayed by (what I would call) propaganda, in order to assuage the angst of the general public (and that includes all those living in NICE parts of town), many will continue to be bamboozled by whatever is placed in front of them.
Sorry, but never try to place dog food in front of me, and then tell me it's grade A sirloin, kapeesh?
I've been lied to by PROS...and found out the hard way in many cases.
You learn, with time, to see THROUGH the BS, because searching for the truth is something that ALL of us should be doing.
The truth might hurt, and we might not enjoy what we discover, but we will be BETTER, as individuals, as a result.
Every one of us becomes the sum of all the experiences (and souls) we have encountered.
We can CHOOSE to go through life with our eyes wide open...
Or, we can choose to wear the blinders of ignorance, like those old horses pulling the milk carts down the city streets, unaware of anything that is not within their forward looking sphere of influence.
I much prefer the "eyes wide open" gig...like to see what's coming, and from what direction.
And like so many other things in life (like mathematics), it's not magic or rocket science.
But it IS good old COMMON SENSE to do so.
Have yourselves a great weekend, make a difference somewhere, and as always...
Stay safe out there, America.